Section 1
We explored Low, Mid, High wholesale market price scenarios based on long range wholesale market and REGO price projections from 2025-2044.
Chichester District Council, a council committed to sustainability, partnered with LASER to analyse the commercial viability of a Corporate Power Purchase Agreement for their energy supply.
Chichester District Council provides district-level services, covering an area of over 300 square miles in the Western part of West Sussex. The district encompasses areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty, and nature reserves, with much of the district area designated as falling within the South Downs National Park. LASER has been working with Chichester District Council, helping them to manage market prices risk through our flexible purchasing baskets. As a council committed to sustainability, they were presented with a price offer from a renewable energy developer to explore the option of a Corporate Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) for their energy supply. This PPA involved a long-term commitment to purchase energy from a solar farm. However, they needed to understand whether this was a commercially viable route for them, so they approached LASER to conduct a detailed analysis. Initially, Chichester District Council aimed to directly compare the PPA proposal against the price of their current flexible procurement basket with LASER, but it was not a reflective/suitable comparison. LASER’s expertise and experience was crucial in addressing this challenge.
LASER recommended a quantitative analysis of the PPA price against future market price scenarios, which was agreed to be the most suitable approach. We delivered a comprehensive quantitative analysis that compared the PPA price offered by the developer with projected future market prices across various market scenarios. This provided an in-depth value comparison and also quantified the impact on their supply portfolio.
We explored Low, Mid, High wholesale market price scenarios based on long range wholesale market and REGO price projections from 2025-2044.
We analysed PPA price against the market price scenarios (High, Mid, Low) for 10,15 and 20 years.
We conducted market simulations to compare:
This is to demonstrate the impact that changes in market prices could have on the ‘counterfactual’ of comparing a solar Corporate PPA to the prevailing market prices per MW.
We highlighted the impact of a PPA at the quoted price on Chichester’s portfolio including the impact of ‘sleeving fees’ (such as shaping & balancing).
LASER’s detailed analysis equipped Chichester District Council with the information and statistics needed to make an informed decision on whether to proceed with the Corporate PPA with the renewable developer. By assessing different market scenarios for comparison, as well as the impact of each of the purchasing options on its overall electricity spend (including provision for ‘sleeving fees’), Chichester District Council was able to confidently evaluate all options through a single, comprehensive analysis. The success of this collaboration not only highlights LASER’s adaptability, as demonstrated by incorporating client feedback into a revised analysis. Moreover, it showcases the potential for other public sector organisations to benefit from LASER’s unique experience with PPA contracts and the complexities in their energy procurement strategies.
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